Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
